Tracking Louisiana
Opinions
A Publication of the Florida Parishes Social Science Research Center
Volume 2, Number 17
October 2004
The SLU Poll:
Louisiana Voters and the 2004 Presidential and U. S. Senatorial
Election
"If the election for President were held today would you vote
for
George W. Bush, John Kerry, Ralph Nader or someone else?"
Random Sample Size: 637
Sampling Error: + 4%
Conducted October 17 - 22, 2004
The SLU Poll: Louisiana Voters and the 2004 Presidential and U. S.
Senatorial Election
The latest SLU Poll of registered
voters in Louisiana shows that President George W. Bush has a substantial
lead over John Kerry heading into the final days of the 2004 campaign.
In fact, our statewide results indicate that Bush leads Kerry by 57.8%
to 31.6%. Ralph Nader only has .5%, other candidates 2.5%, and only
7.7% are undecided or refuse to state a preference (Table 1). Voters
in Louisiana have largely made up their minds.
The SLU Poll was conducted from October
17 – 22, 2004 among a random statewide sample of registered voters.
The sampling error is + 4%.
As expected, voting choices in this
election are polarized by race. White voters overwhelmingly support
Bush (77.0%) over Kerry (16.2%), while Black voters overwhelmingly support
Kerry (66.8%) over Bush (13.5%). At the same time, it appears that
any expectation of gender gap is misplaced (Table 1).
One major story in this data is that,
while John Kerry receives almost 67% among voters who identify themselves
as Democrats, he loses almost 24% of those Democrats to Bush. More
importantly, while Bush receives monolithic support among Republicans (94.7%),
Bush also receives almost 63% of the vote from Independent voters (Table
2).
Table 1: The Race for President, by Race and Gender.
"If the election for President were held today would you vote for
George W. Bush, John Kerry, Ralph Nader or someone else?"
|
TOTALS |
Black
Totals |
Black
Females |
Black
Males |
White
Totals |
White
Females |
White
Males |
| Bush |
57.8 % |
13.5% |
14.4% |
12.2% |
77.0% |
75.1% |
79.2% |
| Kerry |
31.6 |
66.8 |
62.2 |
73.2 |
16.2 |
16.9 |
15.5 |
| Nader |
.5 |
.5 |
|
1.2 |
.5 |
.4 |
.5 |
| Other |
2.5 |
6.7 |
9.0 |
3.7 |
.7 |
|
1.4 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
7.7 |
12.5 |
14.4 |
9.8 |
5.6 |
7.6 |
3.4 |
| N= |
637 |
193 |
111 |
82 |
444 |
237 |
207 |
Table 2: The Race for President, by Party ID.
"If the election for President were held today would you vote for
George W. Bush, John Kerry, Ralph Nader or someone else?"
|
TOTALS |
Democrats |
Independents |
Republicans |
| Bush |
57.8% |
23.7% |
62.6% |
94.7% |
| Kerry |
31.6 |
62.5 |
28.2 |
2.9 |
| Nader |
.5 |
.9 |
.8 |
|
| Other |
2.5 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
.5 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
7.7 |
9.0 |
4.6 |
1.9 |
| N= |
637 |
190 |
274 |
173 |
Bush dominates Kerry in all regions of the
state, though more so in the North/Central Louisiana region than in Cajun
Country or Southeast Louisiana (Table 3). In addition, using voting
frequency in the last five statewide elections as an objective measure
for the likelihood of individual turnout does not produce results that
differ from the overall sample (Table 4).
Table 3: The Race for President, by Region.
"If the election for President were held today would you vote for
George W. Bush, John Kerry, Ralph Nader or someone else?"
|
TOTALS |
Cajun Country |
SE La. |
North/Central |
| Bush |
57.8% |
51.6% |
57.3% |
65.3% |
| Kerry |
31.6 |
36.8 |
32.5 |
24.3 |
| Nader |
.5 |
1.1 |
.4 |
|
| Other |
2.5 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
7.7 |
9.0 |
6.9 |
7.5 |
| N= |
637 |
190 |
274 |
173 |
Table 4: The Presidential Race by Vote Frequency*
|
TOTAL |
Chronic Voters |
| Bush |
57.8% |
58.9% |
| Kerry |
31.6 |
30.8 |
| Nader |
.5 |
.4 |
| Other |
2.5 |
2.3 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
7.7 |
7.6 |
| N= |
637 |
487 |
| SE+ |
4% |
4.5% |
* Chronic voters are those who voted at least 4 times in the last 5 statewide
elections. Non-chronic voters are those who voted 3 or fewer times
across the same elections
Despite efforts to make economic issues relevant,
and to make voters in Louisiana suspicious of the president’s decision-making
on any number of issues, Kerry has been unable to change the template of
his personality that has been imprinted in the minds of Louisiana voters.
For that matter, neither has he been able to alter how Louisiana voters
view president Bush. The war in Iraq, appears to have made this president
almost untouchable on other issues.
Voters as a whole approve of the U. S. – led
war in Iraq (53.3% approve; 35.4% disapprove), although whites (69.6% approval)
and blacks (73.6% disapproval) are polar opposites. Bush receives
87.9% of the vote from those who approve of the war effort, while Kerry
receives 73.9% of the vote from those who disapprove of it (Table 5).
Table 5: Approval/Disapproval of the U. S. – led war in Iraq,
by Race, with Presidential Vote.
“Do you approve or disapprove of the U. S. – led war in Iraq…?”
|
TOTAL |
White |
Black |
| Approve |
53.3%
Bush 87.9% v. Krry 7.8%
|
69.6% |
15.5% |
| Disapprove |
35.4
Bush 12.8% v. Kerry 73.9%
|
18.8 |
73.6 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
11.3 |
11.5 |
10.9 |
| N= |
637 |
444 |
193 |
In order to further explore the dynamics
of the voter’s choice in this election, we asked voters to prioritize a
set of issues. Specifically, we named an issue and then asked voters
to tell us whether whoever is president over the next four years should
make that issue a high priority, a medium priority, a low priority, or
no priority at all. Overwhelmingly, 80.2% voters in Louisiana say
that “Protecting Social Security” should be a “high priority.” The
idea of “Developing a national health care system” (55.1%, high priority)
and “Creating more high-paying jobs” (54.0%, high priority) are second
and third.
About 49.5% say that “Balancing the federal
budget” should be a high priority, followed by a “Constitutional ban on
same-sex marriages” (47.7%, high priority), “Better environmental protection”
(47.3%, high priority), “Paying down the national debt” (38.8%, high priority),
and “Cutting taxes” (36.1%, high priority). Black voters tend to
focus more on social security, and place greater emphasis than do whites
on prioritizing health care and creating high-paying jobs (Table 6).
Bush leads Kerry substantially among
Louisiana voters who place a high priority on these issues, except on that
of “Developing a national health care system” (Bush 44% v. Kerry 44%),
“Creating more high-paying jobs” (Bush 46% v. Kerry 43%) and having “Better
environmental protection” (Bush 45% v. Kerry 42%) (Table 7).
Table 6: Issue Priorities by Race.
“For whoever is elected president for the next four years, I want
you to tell me whether the issues I list should be a high priority, a medium
priority, a low priority or no priority at all. For example, should
“balancing the federal budget” be…? What about…?”
|
TOTAL |
White |
Black |
“Protecting Social Security”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
80.2%
10.8
2.4
6.6 |
78.4%
13.1
2.5
6.1 |
84.5%
5.7
2.1
7.8 |
Developing a national health care system”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
55.1%
18.4
17.3
9.3 |
46.4%
21.4
22.6
9.7 |
75.1%
11.4
5.2
8.3 |
“Creating more high-paying jobs”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
54.0%
28.1
9.5
8.5 |
46.8%
32.7
11.3
9.3 |
70.5%
17.6
5.2
6.8 |
“Balancing the federal budget”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
49.5%
35.0
6.1
9.4 |
47.5%
38.3
5.9
8.4 |
53.9%
27.5
6.8
12.0 |
“Constitutional ban on same-sex marriages”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
47.7%
11.5
31.1
9.7 |
50.0%
13.3
28.0
8.8 |
42.5%
7.3
38.4
11.9 |
“Better environmental protection”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
47.3%
31.9
13.5
7.4 |
40.1%
36.3
16.6
7.0 |
63.7%
21.8
6.2
8.3 |
“Paying down the national debt”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
38.8%
41.8
9.6
9.9 |
37.6%
44.1
9.7
8.7 |
41.5%
36.3
9.3
13.0 |
“Cutting taxes”
High Priority
Medium Priority
Low/No Priority
Don’t know/Ref |
36.1%
36.7
18.7
8.5 |
33.6%
39.9
18.0
8.6 |
42.0%
29.5
20.2
8.3 |
We asked voters in Louisiana to tell us whether
they agree or disagree with certain negative statements about each candidate
for president, statements which reflect poorly on both Bush and Kerry,
and which reflect ideas that each has tried to use against the other in
the course of the campaign in the battle for votes. We wanted to
see who has done a better job of making their negative depiction of the
other candidate stick in the minds of Louisiana voters. The Bush
campaign has clearly been the most convincing of the two, in Louisiana.
White voters in Louisiana disagree (50.5%)
with the idea that the “Bush tax cuts” benefited the wealthy over the middle
class; do not agree (56.9%) that the president brought the U.S. to war
in Iraq for false reasons; do agree that John Kerry flip-flops on issues
(60.8%); do not agree (50.1%) that the president has flip-flopped on the
reasons for the war in Iraq; and do agree that Kerry voted in Congress
against funding for the troops in Iraq (47.7%).
Louisiana voters are split on whether Kerry
deserved recognition for heroism during the Vietnam War. Finally,
Black voters tend to agree with negative assessments of Bush and to disagree
with negative assessments of Kerry (Table 8).
Table 8: Beliefs about the Candidates, Race and Presidential
Vote.
“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following
statements. First,…? What about…?”
|
Total |
White |
Black |
| “President Bush’s tax cut favored wealthy taxpayers over
middle-class taxpayers. |
|
|
|
| Agree |
36.5%
Bush 34.5% v. Kerry 53.9%
|
30.0% |
51/3% |
| Disagree |
50.5%
Bush 75.2% v. Kerry 17.7%
|
56.9 |
35.7 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
13.0 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
| “John Kerry did not deserve recognition for heroism during
the Vietnam War” |
|
|
|
| Agree |
32.4%
Bush 80.1% v. Kerry 13.6%
|
37.2% |
21.2% |
| Disagree |
39.7
Bush 36.8% v. Kerry 52.6%
|
33.3 |
54.4 |
| Don’t Know/Refused |
27.9 |
29.5 |
24.3 |
| “President Bush brought the U. S. to war in Iraq for reasons
he knew to be false.” |
|
|
|
| Agree |
31.7%
Bush 24.3% v. Kerry 65.8%
|
20.2% |
58.1% |
| Disagree |
56.9
Bush 79.3% v. Kerry 13.3%
|
69.2 |
28.5 |
| Don’t Know/Refused |
11.5 |
10.6 |
13.5 |
| “John Kerry flip-flops on issues.” |
|
|
|
| Agree |
60.8%
Bush 79.6% v. Kerry 12.7%
|
72.1% |
34.7% |
| Disagree |
25.9
Bush 17.6% v. Kerry 71.5%
|
16.7 |
47.2 |
| Don’t Know/Refused |
13.4 |
11.2 |
18.1 |
| “President Bush flip-flops on the reasons for going to
war in Iraq.” |
|
|
|
| Agree |
37.5%
Bush 33.1% v. Kerry 56.5%
|
28.8% |
57.5% |
| Disagree |
50.1
Bush 78.7% v. Kerry 13.8%
|
59.3 |
29.0 |
| Don’t Know/Refused |
12.4 |
11.9 |
13.5 |
| John Kerry voted in Congress against funds to equip U.
S. soldiers in Iraq.” |
|
|
|
| Agree |
47.7%
Bush 73.0% v. Kerry 14.5%
|
54.1% |
33.2% |
| Disagree |
28.0
Bush 48.3% v. Kerry 41.0%
|
25.9 |
32.6 |
| Don’t Know/Refused |
24.4 |
20.0 |
34.2 |
Voters were also reminded that the November
2nd ballot will have a race to fill the U. S. Senate seat being vacated
by John Breaux. Among the candidates in that race, David Vitter receives
42.9% of the vote, Chris John 18.1%, and John Kennedy 10.4%, while 21.5%
are undecided or refuse to state a preference. Here too, voting is
polarized along racial lines, with Republican Vitter getting most of the
white vote and Democrats John and Kennedy together receiving most of the
white vote (Table 9). Region plays an important role, as Vitter leads
in his home area of Southeast Louisiana (49.3%) and in North/Central Louisiana
(41.6%). However, John and Vitter split John’s home region in Cajun
Country, 31.1% to 34.7%, respectively (Table 10). Kennedy does not
seem to have a strong regional base. In trial runoffs, both John
and Kennedy lag behind Vitter (Tables 11 and 12). However, recent
U. S. Senate runoff elections in Louisiana show that Vitter cannot rest
complacently on a primary election lead.
Table 9: The Race for the U. S. Senate, by Race and Gender.
"If the election for U. S. Senator were held today would you vote
for Chris John, John Kennedy, Arthur Morrell, David Vitter or someone else?"
|
TOTALS |
Black
Totals |
Black
Females |
Black
Males |
White
Totals |
White
Females |
White
Males |
| John |
18.1% |
22.3% |
20.7% |
24.4% |
16.2% |
15.1% |
17.4% |
| Kennedy |
10.4 |
23.8 |
25.2 |
22.0 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
| Morrell |
1.1 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
.5 |
|
1.0 |
| Vitter |
42.9 |
12.4 |
9.0 |
17.1 |
56.1 |
52.3 |
60.4 |
| Other |
6.1 |
11.9 |
16.2 |
6.1 |
3.6 |
4.6 |
2.4 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
21.5 |
26.9 |
27.0 |
26.9 |
19.1 |
23.2 |
14.5 |
| N = |
637 |
193 |
111 |
82 |
444 |
237 |
207 |
Table 10: The Race for the U. S. Senate, by Region.
"If the election for U. S. Senator were held today would you vote
for Chris John, John Kennedy, Arthur Morrell, David Vitter or someone else?"
|
TOTALS |
Cajun Country |
SE La |
North/Central |
| John |
18.1% |
31.1% |
12.0% |
13.3% |
| Kennedy |
10.4 |
10.0 |
9.5 |
12.1 |
| Morrell |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
|
| Vitter |
42.9 |
34.7 |
49.3 |
41.6 |
| Other |
6.1 |
4.7 |
7.3 |
5.8 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
21.5 |
17.3 |
20.1 |
27.2 |
| N = |
637 |
|
|
|
Table 11: Runoff Election Trial Heat for the U. S. Senate,
by Region: John v. Vitter.
|
TOTALS |
Cajun Country |
SE La |
North/Central |
| John |
29.5% |
43.25 |
25.5% |
20.8% |
| Vitter |
49.8 |
37.9 |
57.3 |
50.9 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
20.7 |
19.0 |
17.1 |
28.4 |
| N= |
637 |
190 |
274 |
173 |
Table 12: Runoff Election Trial Heat for the U. S. Senate,
by Region: Kennedy v. Vitter.
|
TOTALS |
Cajun Country |
SE La |
North/Centra |
| Kennedy |
25.3% |
26.8% |
26.6% |
21.4% |
| Vitter |
48.2 |
44.7 |
50.7 |
48.0 |
| Don't Know/Ref |
26.6 |
28.5 |
22.7 |
30.6 |
| N= |
637 |
190 |
274 |
173 |
Sample Information:
N = 637
Sampling Error + 4%
Black Voters = 30%
Female Voters = 55%
About the SLU
Poll
The Director of the SLU Poll is Dr. Kurt Corbello,
Department of History and Political Science. Through the SLU Poll,
Southeastern Louisiana University provides objective and independent analyses
of public opinion on important issues and elections. Each poll is
conducted by students who are trained for the purpose and who are under
professional supervision. Special thanks go out to the approximately
140 political science students who conducted the interviews. All of them
did such a wonderful job on this study. Special, special thanks to
Mr. Chuck Dellert and Ms. Sally Herring, who helped to manage the operation.
Facilities for the SLU Poll are provided by
the Florida Parishes Social Science Research Center (FPSSRC). Thanks
to the students on staff in the center, for their helpfulness, smiles and
laughter. Double thanks to Dr. Bonnie Lewis for never saying “no”
to the call for “Help!” For further information about The SLU Poll
contact:
Dr. Kurt Corbello
Department of History and Political Science
Southeastern Louisiana University
Hammond, LA 70402
Phone: (985)-549-2112 or 2109
E-Mail: mcorbello@selu.edu
Regarding the services offered by the FPSSRC, contact the Director:
Dr. Bonnie Lewis
Dept. of Sociology and Criminal Justice
Southeastern Louisiana University
Hammond, LA. 70402
E-Mail: blewis@selu.edu |